Cardano stays above $0.22 as dropping open interest hints at losses

Key takeaways

• ADA futures open interest dropped from $549.14 million to $475.58 million, pointing to a decrease in derivatives exposure.
• Perpetual traders maintain a slight bullish tilt through positive funding, leaving long positions at risk if prices descend further.
• ADA continues to trade under major moving averages, with $0.1894 serving as a potential downside target.

Cardano Stabilizes After Sharp Weekly Decline

Cardano managed to stay above $0.2200 on Monday as buyers attempted to put a floor under the asset following last week’s roughly 12% drop.

So far in October, ADA has shed over 10%, while subdued whale positioning and weakening derivatives metrics point to a lack of strong conviction behind any rebound.

The daily chart also remains pressured following the previous week’s breakdown beneath trendline support close to $0.2321. Because the token sits below its principal moving averages, sellers maintain the advantage in the near term.

Figures from CoinGlass indicate that Cardano futures open interest fell from $549.14 million the previous week to $465.87 million on Monday.

This drop equals roughly a 14.5% decrease in the total notional value of open contracts.

While this points to diminished derivatives participation, it does not confirm that retail traders are solely exiting the ecosystem. Declining ADA prices can shrink dollar-denominated open interest, alongside position closures and liquidations.

The funding rate held positive at 0.0032%, showing that long positions were paying short positions within the tracked perpetual swap market.

This subtle positive metric implies that certain market participants are still betting on a recovery, though funding rates by themselves do not signal extreme leverage.

Even so, additional price declines could place vulnerable long positions under strain and spark more forced liquidations.

On-chain metrics show that large holders have made only minimal changes to their positions.

Data from Santiment reveals that addresses holding more than 100 million ADA controlled 15.99% of the circulating supply, up marginally from 15.95% the prior week.

Conversely, the group holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA accounted for 38.11% of the supply, slipping from 38.27%.

These offsetting shifts present a mixed sentiment rather than a definitive accumulation trend, and they do not clarify whether tokens were sold, swapped between wallets, or shifted across different balance tiers.

When paired with lower futures participation, these statistics yield little proof of returning buying momentum.

Cardano’s technical outlook remains bearish

ADA trades below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average, situated around $0.2290, and its 200-day EMA, hovering near $0.2395.

The loss of the $0.2321 trendline support compounds the fragile market structure, keeping multiple hurdles overhead.

Momentum indicators back the prevailing bearish stance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence metric stays under zero accompanied by a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index sits near 41.

Although this RSI level shows sellers are in control, ADA has not yet dipped into oversold territory below the standard threshold of 30.

Without a breakout past nearby barriers, this recent stabilization acts merely as a pause inside a broader correction rather than a sign of trend reversal.

The psychological $0.20 mark acts as the immediate downside reference point if selling picks back up. Beyond that, the low from August 30 near $0.1894 acts as the next structural support level.

A retreat to that area would translate to roughly 14% to 15% of downside from current market valuations.

Looking upward, buyers must first clear the 50-day EMA at $0.2290. The old trendline support at roughly $0.2321 serves as the next obstacle, followed closely by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.

A decisive break and hold above these hurdles would begin to dismantle the bearish setup. Until that happens, Cardano stays vulnerable to further downside as participants evaluate whether buyer demand can solidify around the $0.2200 mark.