Cardano faces downward pressure as large holders reduce stakes

Key takeaways

• Cardano (ADA) consolidates below $0.20 on Monday after giving up 21% in October, with support holding near $0.1894.
• Large holders with balances between 10 million and 100 million ADA trimmed their share of the circulating supply from 38.03% to 37.45%.
• Technical signals remain decidedly bearish; a drop under $0.1894 could expose ADA to additional slides toward $0.1712 and $0.1537.

Cardano (ADA) faces ongoing struggles to build momentum on Monday, hovering under the $0.20 threshold following an October performance that erased 21% of its worth.

While the token has maintained its footing above the $0.1894 support marker, shrinking whale balances and cooling derivatives metrics indicate that buyers remain hesitant.

ADA has traded in a relatively narrow band since Thursday’s nearly 8% drop, though signs of a genuine turnaround are scarce.

On-chain figures provided by Santiment reveal that prominent Cardano wallets trimmed their positions across the past month, and CoinGlass statistics highlight a clear contraction in futures Open Interest.

Interestingly, Cardano is capturing heightened attention across social media channels despite the subdued market conditions. Whether that chatter will eventually spur fresh purchasing demand is far from certain.

Cardano whale holdings decline despite rising social interest

Cardano experienced a surge in online discussion following confirmations that neither ADA nor Midnight-linked tokens were compromised during the recent Binance security breach.

Data from Santiment shows that Cardano’s social dominance reached 2.49% on Monday, marking its highest point since late June.

Social dominance tracks how often a particular asset is referenced in crypto conversations compared to the rest of the digital asset market. An upward tick typically means that a larger crowd of investors and traders is discussing the project.

Even so, this spike in visibility has not translated into heavier accumulation by Cardano’s biggest stakeholders.

Santiment metrics show that addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA currently account for roughly 37.45% of the circulating supply, a decrease from last month’s 38.03%.

This reduction indicates that select major investors chose to scale back their exposure rather than buy the dip during recent price weakness.

Whale tracking is critical because large-scale investors heavily impact market liquidity and price action, particularly when overall demand is already sluggish.

Cardano’s supply in profit has also plummeted, sinking from 28.36% to 14.77%. Consequently, a much smaller fraction of the circulating coins sits in a profitable state, mirroring the fallout from ADA’s recent slide. However, this metric alone does not clarify the exact volume of tokens driven by profit-taking.

Should major stakeholders persist in cutting back their stakes, Cardano may find it difficult to bounce back from October’s losses.

This spot market sluggishness is mirrored in the derivatives sector. Figures from CoinGlass indicate that ADA futures Open Interest retreated to about $419 million, down from the previous week’s $450 million.

That constitutes an approximate 11% reduction, signaling that speculators are closing out existing contracts faster than they are opening new ones.

Open Interest measures the aggregate quantity of active futures positions that remain unsettled or unclosed.

A shrinking Open Interest metric usually points to contracting market participation or an ongoing unwinding of leveraged bets.

In Cardano’s case, this drop accompanies falling spot prices and lower whale participation, implying that traders remain wary of establishing fresh stakes.

The mix of flagging derivatives engagement and a lack of large-holder accumulation leaves ADA without an immediate catalyst for buying momentum.

A sustained rebound in Open Interest, paired with a rising price trend, would offer early signals that traders are regaining their appetite for risk.

Cardano price prediction: ADA faces bearish pressure below $0.20

Cardano continues to change hands below the psychological $0.20 barrier on Monday, with its daily chart confirming that bears remain firmly in command.

ADA is positioned underneath both its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2179 and its 200-day EMA at $0.2408.

These moving averages act as formidable overhead hurdles, complicating any efforts by buyers to orchestrate a lasting recovery.

The altcoin has also slipped under an ascending support trendline that sat near $0.2019.

This breakdown is notable because past support levels frequently flip into overhead resistance once prices drop underneath them.

Unless ADA manages to recapture this trendline, subsequent rebound attempts could easily attract fresh selling pressure.

Momentum gauges provide little encouragement for the bulls. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers near 31, closing in on the traditional oversold marker of 30.

While an RSI nearing oversold territory can sometimes precede a brief relief bounce, it also underscores the intensity of the ongoing sell-off.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays negative, keeping the daily chart’s bearish momentum intact.

Put together, these technical signals suggest that ADA has yet to establish any convincing signs of a bullish reversal.

The immediate point of interest for market participants is the $0.1894 support floor, which aligns with the low recorded on August 30.

ADA has successfully defended this zone despite recent turbulence, though an additional wave of selling could place the floor under severe stress.

A definitive daily close below $0.1894 would worsen the near-term technical outlook and potentially pave the way for a drop toward $0.1712, matching the August 18 low.

If the bearish trend persists, the next major support zone resides around $0.1537, a level previously tested on July 27.

Reaching that area would constitute a substantial extension of Cardano’s broader October correction.

On the recovery front, buyers must first push ADA back above the broken trendline near $0.2019 to improve the short-term outlook.

A successful break past that threshold could clear a path for the cryptocurrency to challenge the 50-day EMA at $0.2179.

Beyond that hurdle, the 200-day EMA at $0.2408 stands as an even stiffer barrier against a broader trend reversal.

Until ADA re-establishes itself above these resistance barriers, the technical bias will likely remain skewed toward the downside.