Can XRP reach $1 despite ongoing ETF outflows?

Key takeaways

• XRP traded near $1.09 on Monday after dropping over 10% during the previous week, while sellers maintained their grip on the wider market.
• US spot XRP ETFs registered $529,510 in net outflows last week, breaking a two-week streak of positive institutional inflows.
• As bearish technical signals continue, XRP faces the risk of testing the key psychological $1 support barrier.

XRP continued to encounter downward pressure on Monday, changing hands around $1.097 following a loss of more than 10% the week prior.

The digital asset stays locked in a bearish trend as shrinking institutional interest, worsening derivatives positioning, and unfavorable macroeconomic headwinds hamper any attempts at a turnaround.

XRP ETF outflows signal cooling institutional demand

Institutional enthusiasm for XRP cooled over the past week, reversing the upward trajectory seen across the prior two weeks.

Data from SoSoValue shows that US spot XRP ETFs recorded $529,510 in net outflows last week, interrupting a run of two consecutive weeks of net inflows.

For XRP, this pivot back to negative weekly flows arrives at a particularly vulnerable juncture, with the coin already battling severe technical vulnerabilities.

Aside from ETF redemptions, metrics from the derivatives market indicate that traders are increasingly positioning themselves for further losses.

CoinGlass figures show that XRP’s long-to-short ratio slid to 0.89 on Monday, nearing a multi-week low.

A ratio dipping below one signifies that short positions outpace long positions across the tracked market, signaling that traders expect prices to drop further.

Additional figures from CryptoQuant corroborate this pessimistic outlook. The insights platform highlights heavy whale order activity across XRP spot and futures markets alongside ongoing dominance from sellers.

This mixture implies that larger market players remain active even as selling momentum continues to overshadow buyer demand.

CryptoQuant also points out overheated conditions within the spot market, signaling elevated trading activity throughout the ongoing market correction.

Macroeconomic conditions are introducing extra hurdles for XRP as traders re-evaluate the trajectory of US monetary policy.

Robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures published last week reinforced beliefs that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates restrictive for an extended period or enact another hike.

Based on CME FedWatch figures, traders are currently pricing in roughly a 78.7% chance of a December interest rate increase, up from 72.8% prior to the jobs report.

XRP price forecast: Bears target the psychological $1 support

XRP maintains a negative technical outlook while trading well underneath its major moving averages.

At the time of writing on Monday, XRP trades close to $1.097, following a sharp weekly pullback that leaves buyers struggling to retake control.

The cryptocurrency lingers beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between $1.302 and $1.360.

This forms a substantial resistance barrier, implying that any meaningful rebound could run into heavy selling pressure.

Momentum indicators also point toward sustained weakness. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 26, pushing XRP deeply into oversold territory.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays negative, confirming the prevailing downward momentum.

With XRP hovering near recent lows, sellers could attempt another push toward the psychological $1 support level.

A definitive break below this mark would spell a major technical setback and could spark further selling, though fresh support levels would subsequently need to form.

Despite prevailing bearish conditions, XRP could mount a brief recovery if buyers take advantage of oversold momentum signals.

The initial key resistance level rests at $1.160, a barrier bulls must clear to mount an early recovery.

A sustained push past this hurdle might clear the path for a wider rally toward $1.300, where stronger selling interest may surface.

Beyond that point, XRP encounters further obstacles at the 50-day EMA of $1.302 and the 100-day EMA of $1.307.

The 200-day EMA at $1.360 stands as another major barrier that buyers must conquer before the broader technical outlook starts looking brighter.