Early-stage crypto investors face 50% average loss on locked positions

Locked token holders have experienced an average drawdown of nearly 50% for their locked positions compared to over-the-counter (OTC) valuations in May 2024.

According to data published by STIX founder Taran Sabharwal on April 22, holders could have exited their positions at double the current spot prices the previous year.

Sabharwal shared data comparing fully diluted valuation (FDV) estimates from May 2024 against current FDVs as of April 2025 for major tokens, including JITO, BERA, ZRO, WLD, TIA, IO, W, ZK, EIGEN, SCR, and BLAST.

Widespread devaluations across top tokens

Among the projects tracked, nearly all showed considerable valuation declines. SCR and BLAST recorded the largest year-over-year drawdowns at -85% and -88%, respectively.

EIGEN followed closely with a -75% drop. Other tokens, such as ZK (-64%), W (-50%), IO (-48%), and TIA (-44%), also posted substantial declines relative to their locked OTC valuations from the previous year.

Only JITO posted an increase, with a +75% gain relative to last year’s valuations, standing out as an exception in an otherwise broadly negative environment for locked token holders.

According to Sabharwal, the disparity between OTC valuations and current spot prices highlights the risks of investing in illiquid, locked positions during early-stage token rounds. 

While these early investments are typically structured with the expectation of long-term upside, market volatility and project-specific factors over the past 12 months have led to substantial underperformance relative to initial valuations.

In the same period, the 22 sectors in the crypto market, in addition to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), experienced an average correction of 40.7%, based on Artemis data. This is nearly 20% better than the performance of locked tokens. 

Implications for token markets and early investors

The data suggests that many early-stage token investors who committed to locked positions may have missed better exit opportunities in the secondary market throughout 2024. 

Locked tokens typically come with vesting schedules or transfer restrictions, which prevent immediate liquidity and expose holders to market shifts during the lock-up period.

The data shared by Sabharwal also reflects broader market conditions affecting fully diluted valuations across the crypto sector. Newer projects face intensified pressure in secondary markets compared to their initial fundraising rounds.

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